Baker Tilly Acts as Expert for the Forbes Kazakhstan “Rentier” Ranking: The Commercial Real Estate Market Moves from Shortage to Competition

The Baker Tilly Qazaqstan Advisory team has once again acted as an expert for the annual Forbes Kazakhstan “Rentier” ranking We assessed the size of Kazakhstan’s commercial real estate market, its main trends and the outlook for the office, retail and warehouse segments.

The market in figures

• KZT 448 bn – the volume of office, shopping mall and warehouse rental services in H1 2026 (+7.4% year on year). The office segment grew by 50.3%, the warehouse segment almost tripled, and the retail segment fell by 44%.
• 99.3% – the occupancy rate of Class A/A+ offices in Astana. In Almaty, 37.5 thousand m² of office space was delivered over the year, and the market is gradually absorbing the new space.
• 98.3% – the occupancy rate of quality shopping malls in Almaty. New shopping mall completions in the first nine months of 2026 fell by 58.8% after the record year of 2025.
• 14.8% – the vacancy rate of Class A and B warehouses. Following large-scale completions in 2023–2025, supply temporarily exceeded demand.
• KZT 4.31 tn – the volume of retail e-commerce in 2025. Marketplaces account for 93% of turnover (excluding the shadow segment).

Key trends

1. Demand is shifting toward quality offices, while Class C is losing tenants.
2. The price gap between office classes is narrowing.
3. Shopping malls are becoming leisure centers. In Almaty, redevelopment and street retail are gaining importance, while construction continues in Astana and the regions.
4. Competition for tenants has intensified in the warehouse market: facilities compete on quality, location, operating costs and flexibility of terms.
5. Marketplaces are building their own logistics: Wildberries alone is constructing more than 260 thousand m² of warehouses in Almaty and Astana.

What this means for market participants
For owners of aging properties, modernization is becoming a strategic priority. Office tenants in Almaty now have more choice, while in Astana the shortage of large Class A blocks will persist until the delayed projects are delivered. Warehouse developers should focus on confirmed demand. E-commerce and Kazakhstan’s transit role provide long-term support to the market.

Materials
→ Full version of the analytical material: Kazakhstan Commercial RE 2026

Authors:
Ramina Nazyrova, MRICS, Valuation Partner
Kamila Khilanova, Business Valuation Manager
Andrey Gruzdev, Real Estate Valuation Consultant
Alibek Kabdosov, Business Valuation Consultant
Daniyar Zhakenov, Business Valuation Consultant
Anton Galli, Business Valuation Consultant
Kaisar Baltabayev, Business Valuation Consultant

Data as of 9M 2026. Sources: Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, National Bank of Kazakhstan, krisha.kz, Baker Tilly calculations.